The Limerick SFC workshop, second of a series of three, was aiming at building a common language for Macro-Modelling. After two days of intense debates and exchanges, we can conclude that the goal is on its way to being achieved. Indeed, surfing on the outcome of the Dijon gathering, we could get to the core of what is retained as essential for macro modelling. But first thing first, let’s have a quick summary of these challenging two days.
Submitted by godin.antoine on Sun, 08/25/2013 - 08:51
The aim of the paper is to synthesize the stock-flow consistent modelling and the agent based modelling using the EVIEWS software. Then we try to make it compatible the macroeconomic framework of the post Keynesian SFC modelling ("top-down model") and heterogeneous microeconomic foundations ("bottom-up model"). The heterogeneity of agents concerns thehouseholds.
Submitted by godin.antoine on Wed, 07/17/2013 - 17:25
This work builds an agent-based model of financial markets to investigate how the interplay between high and low frequency traders can affect stock price volatility and the occurrence of flash crashes in financial markets. The increased occurrence and severity of flash crashes and excessive volatility of stock prices observed in financial time series have been associated to the rising importance of high frequency trading (HFT, see for instance, Sornette and Von der Becke, 2011, and further references therein).
Submitted by godin.antoine on Wed, 07/17/2013 - 16:34
The Great Recession has shown that income distribution and financial factors, which were constantly downplayed (at best) by mainstream models, appeared to have a fundamental role at least as triggers of the outburst of recessionary dynamics (Stiglitz, 2011). However, both mainstream theory and policy are navigating by sight (Blanchard et al., 2013): for example the impact and the interactions between fiscal, monetary and macro-prudential tools during recessions is still unclear.
Submitted by godin.antoine on Wed, 07/17/2013 - 16:29
The euro zone crisis illustrates the insufficiency of adjustment mechanisms in a monetary union characterized by a large heterogeneity. The paper presents a first version of a four country SFC model aimed at testing alternative versions of a multi-euro Europe, i.e. a euro zone with two euros, a southern euro and a northern euro, combined, or not, with a global euro floating against the dollar.
Submitted by godin.antoine on Wed, 07/17/2013 - 16:27
In the recent years the Colombian economy grew relatively rapidly, but it was a biased growth. The energy sector (the locomotora minero-energetica, to use the rhetorical expression of President Juan Manuel Santos) grew much faster than the rest of the economy. The agricultural sector did not grow that rapidly and, above all, the manufacturing sector registered a negative rate of growth. These are the symptoms of the well-known “Dutch disease”.